Friday, December 23, 2011

There Is A Price To Be Paid

No economic law is more immutable than, "there is no such thing as a free lunch!" Actually, a more immutable law (at least in my mind) is you can't spend more than you make (at least not for very long). Not surprisingly, the two laws are related. And the truth be told, there are such things as free lunches, but they usually come with strings attached (which is the usual application of the idiom). But in the economic realm, there is a simple reason why there is no such thing as a free lunch and relatedly why you can't keep spending more than you make. It is because the production of a lunch costs something. Whoever is handing out free lunches is limited by how much capital they have. Ergo, there are limits to free lunches (and deficits), and the economic law holds true.

And so it seems with the massive government and monetary interventions we have experienced in the post-GFC world. We have become desensitized to the scale and the scope of the operations, and don't think twice anymore about new initiatives or new "solutions," largely because we have not seen too many deleterious effects. It seems that because none of these actions have led to immediate calamity, then maybe they are alright (perhaps even a free lunch). People who would traditionally and historically have been aghast at the actions proposed and undertaken, are now much less squeamish about each new initiative. We are becoming more comfortable with and more complacent about government interventions. And if that doesn't sound familiar, you may like to remind yourself of the pre-conditions to a bubble* (comfort and complacency are important ingredients).

There is a cost to artifice, and there is a price to be paid for attempts at muting the laws of economics. You can't simply wish new liquidity into existence, or make interest rates whatever level you want, without some cost. We have yet to see or feel the full effects of those costs, and therein lies the danger. The bigger the cause, the greater the effect. Ultimately it will be the encroachment of the previously contingent liabilities that sink us (unless we make the necessary painful changes). Rather than smoothing over the effects, the passage of time may in fact accelerate our day of reckoning.

*Bubble is being used here in the sense of something that is isn't sustainable, and for which there is a rude awakening.