Thursday, January 13, 2011

The Problem With Relative Value*

Virtually every asset class looks attractive relative to bonds right now (except for cash**).

And that is the problem when you have an externality like a central bank setting interest rates. That distortion of the supply/demand nexus, sets up an imbalance. In the current case, it is the misallocation of resources within an economy toward risky assets*** (although it is highly ironic that petrified retail investors actually sought out bonds like a giffen good).

Relative value investors (and that is what most are) look at those signals and from them determine that equities, commodities, precious metals, real estate, you name it, are attractive relative to bonds. And they are. The problem is bond yields are at artificially low levels, and when they normalize (a.k.a., go up) those assets that looked attractive relative to bonds previously no longer look as attractive.

Proper analysis of risk assets should incorporate normalized growth, margins, and discount rates into their framework, otherwise they risk falling for the "relative value illusion" and a host of other fallacies (ie. cyclical illusion, history will repeat illusion, et al).

*Actually there are numerous problems associated with relative value analysis, but that is for another day.


**But even cash looks attractive if you believe bond rates are going to go up.

***Actually, the misallocation may be less to risky assets, than to risky behavior.